01.05.2009 - 31.07.2011

Determinants of the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in Portugal, 1987-2000



Ref
PIC/IC/83006/2007

Financing Instituitions
Administração Regional de Saúde do Norte

Summary

Coronary heart disease mortality has been decreasing in Portugal since the 1980s, like in most of developed countries.

However, the reasons for this decline are not clear. To explore trends in CHD mortality from 1987 to 2000 and to comprehensively assess the potential contribution of cardiovascular treatments and risk factors changes, Capewell and colleagues have progressively developed and refined a CHD mortality model called IMPACT.

Modeling and explaining the trends in coronary mortality has already been successfully achieved in Scotland, England and Wales, New Zealand, Beijing, Finland and Ireland.

Using this validated methodology, we propose to model the decline in CHD mortality in Portugal, using mostly secondary data already available on interventions and risk factor trends. Some of the previous models suggested that approximately half of the decline was attributable to changes in the risk factor profile and half to the increased use of medical and surgical treatments.

It will thus be of great benefit to clarify the situation in Portugal, and determine the specific factors that have made the largest contribution towards this recent decline.

Results from this study will help to inform national policy, focus health promotion and educational strategies, and target benefits to those most in need. On the other hand, and this is an investment for the future, this project will open doors for the use of clinical data in secondary analysis, it will leave a large amount of validated data for additional analyses and it will allow training of 2 fellows in handling this kind of data and analysing it.


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